Publications

See also my Google Scholar page.

PhD thesis

Jellema, H. (2023). (Im)probable stories: combining Bayesian and explanation-based accounts of rational criminal proof.
University of Groningen.

Peer-reviewed (English)

Jellema, H. & Bijlsma, J. (submitted). Decision theory and dangerousness.

Dahlman, C. & Jellema, H. (2026), ‘Scenario-Based Bayesian Networks for Legal Evidence’, Artificial Intelligence and Law.

Jellema, H. (2025). Jellema, H. (2026). Standards of proof for future crimes and decision theory. Quaestio facti

Jellema, H. (2024). Perpetrator Knowledge: A Bayesian account. Law, probability & risk.

Jellema, H. (2023). Reasonable Doubt, Robust Evidential Probability and the Unknown. Criminal Law & Philosophy.

Jellema, H. (2022). Reasonable Doubt from Unconceived Alternatives. Erkenntnis, 1-26.

Jellema, H. (2022). Eyewitness evaluation through inference to the best explanation. Synthese, 200(5), 411.

Jellema, H. (2021). The reasonable doubt standard as inference to the best explanation. Synthese, 199(1-2), 949-973.

de Snoo-Trimp, J. C., Kremer, A. J. Z., Jellema, H., & Molewijk, A. C. (2022). Assessing Quality of Moral Deliberation: A Pilot Study Using Video-Recordings. EC Psychology and Psychiatry, 11, 29-42.

Jellema, H. (2021). The values of prediction in criminal cases. The International Journal of Evidence & Proof, 25(2), 163-179.

Jellema, H. (2019). Case comment: responding to the implausible, incredible and highly improbable stories defendants tell: a Bayesian interpretation of the Venray murder ruling. Law, Probability and Risk, 18(2-3), 201-211.

Jellema, H., Kremer, S., Mackor, A. R., & Molewijk, B. (2017). Evaluating the quality of the deliberation in moral case deliberations: a coding scheme. Bioethics, 31(4), 277-285.

Edited volumes (English)

Mackor, A.R., Jellema, H. & van Koppen, P.J. (2021). Explanation-based approaches to reasoning about evidence and proof in criminal trials. In: Law and Mind. Brozek, B., Hage, J. & Vincent, N. (eds.). Cambridge University Press.

In Dutch

Jellema, H. (2026). Bayesiaans denken en het (straf)recht: reflecties naar aanleiding van Meester & Stevens, Redeneren onder onzekerheid in strafzaken.

Jellema, H. & Dahlman, C. (2025). Probabilistische drogredenen in de rechtszaal: een systematisch overzicht. Expertise & Recht, 3.

Jellema, H. (2024). Daderkennis. Expertise & Recht, 3.

Jellema, H. & Mackor, A.R. (2024). Misverstanden rond falsificatie en alternatieve scenario’s. Expertise & Recht, 2, p. 46-51.

Jellema, H. (2023). (On)waarschijnlijke verhalen: strafrechtelijk bewijs, kansrekening en scenario’s. Ars Aequi.